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MAS may tighten monetary policy as oil shock lifts prices

Swati Pandey / Bloomberg
Swati Pandey / Bloomberg • 3 min read
MAS may tighten monetary policy as oil shock lifts prices
For the MAS, the choice is increasingly stark: lean against a fresh inflation shock driven by war, or hold back as the same shock begins to weigh on growth.
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(April 13): Singapore’s central bank is poised to tighten policy on Tuesday as the Iran war drives up import costs and threatens to push inflation beyond current projections, potentially becoming one of the first in Asia to adjust settings following the Middle East conflict.

Fifteen out of 18 economists in a Bloomberg survey expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to tighten policy at its April 14 review. Three forecast no change. An escalation in the Middle East and the possibility of a global recession were cited as the biggest tail risks in the survey conducted between March 27 and April 9.

On Tuesday, the Trade Ministry will also release how the economy fared in the first quarter after Singapore warned that growth will take a hit this year. Economists expect Singapore’s gross domestic product to shrink by 0.9% in the first three months, compared with the fourth quarter. On an annual basis, the economy is estimated to have expanded 6%.

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