A technical recession is possible as the brunt of the initial US tariff announcements has wrecked “significant havoc” on financial markets this month, adds Ling, who is also head of global markets research and strategy at OCBC. “[The] real economic fallout is anticipated in the coming months.”
As expected, Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) trimmed the GDP growth forecast this year from 1.0%-3.0% previously to 0%-2.0%. This is a sharp slowdown from the 4.4% seen in 2024, says Selena Ling, chief economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC).
Given the state of the world, fraught with tariff uncertainties, the manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and storage industries will face vulnerabilities from a trade slowdown, says Ling in an April 14 note, while the finance and insurance industries will also face heightened volatilities amid risk-off sentiments, tepid credit intermediation and consumer credit card spending.
