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Our 2026 picks: UOB — Share price recovery is premised on normalised credit costs

Goola Warden
Goola Warden • 4 min read
Our 2026 picks: UOB — Share price recovery is premised on normalised credit costs
UOB's share price recovery depends on normalised credit costs of 25-30 bps for its 4Q2025 to be out on Feb 24
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United Overseas Bank (UOB) share price has been on something of a rollercoaster ride in the first couple of months of this year. On Jan 23, the stock reached a new high of $39.50, driven by a JPMorgan report dated Jan 9. Then its share price fell sharply following the release of a report dated Jan 23, but published on Jan 25, that downgraded UOB.

To take a step back, UOB’s share price was under pressure in November and December following the announcement that it pre-emptively set aside $615 million in general allowances (general provisions or Expected Credit Loss 3 (ECL 3)) during its 3Q2025 results announcement in November 2025 to strengthen “its balance sheet against headwinds in the US and Greater China (GC) commercial real estate (CRE) sectors”.

When JPMorgan analysts met with investors, they noted that they were focused on UOB’s credit costs and higher non-performing loan (NPL) formation in Greater China, the US and Thailand.

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