The fallout from Fitch Ratings’ downgrade of the US puts the focus on the countries still holding onto the coveted top credit grade.
Economies with the highest credit rating at S&P Global Ratings, Fitch and Moody’s Investors Service include Germany, Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Singapore and Australia. Canada is rated AAA by two of the ratings companies.
Fitch’s downgrade of the US sovereign follows the cut by S&P in 2011, leaving Moody’s as the only major rating company keeping its top-tier grade for the world’s largest economy. Fitch said the cut reflects expected fiscal deterioration and a growing government debt burden after repeated debt-limit standoffs.
So far, concerns that the ratings agencies may shift their gaze to the remaining bloc are premature, according to Berenberg Capital Markets.
“Every country is different, has its own growth pattern — its own tax and spending structures so it doesn’t suggest any contagion to other countries,” senior economist Mickey Levy said on Bloomberg Television. “No country that has the strength of the US has been affected by this.”
See also: Fed cuts rates by half point in decisive bid to defend economy
For Kevin Muir, a former trader who now writes the MacroTourist newsletter, US securities are over-owned in the global financial community and the downgrade could lead to a re-weighting among some investors toward the assets of other countries. But for other market participants, it will not change their view about the US.
“Is Canada really a better credit than the United States? Or Luxembourg?,” Muir wrote. “The US is the world’s dominant power, and sure they have done some ill-advised things like wave a gun around threatening to shoot their own financial system with a default, but we all know they will eventually pay their bills.”
Why the US credit rating was cut by Fitch and what it means
See also: Fed to hold interest rates steady but start considering cuts
Americans generally expect to be number one at everything. So the downgrade of the country’s credit rating for only the second time ever rattled the country’s pride and the global financial system.
The US was stripped of its top-tier sovereign credit rating by Fitch Ratings on Aug 1, echoing a move more than a decade ago by S&P Global Ratings.
Both markdowns were spurred by bitter standoffs over the nation’s borrowing. History suggests that the impact on financial markets may be short-lived, though the move could provide fodder for more political battles.
1. Why did Fitch downgrade the US?
Fitch said the one-step downgrade to a rating of AA+ reflects an “erosion of governance” that has “manifested in repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions.” That’s because every few years, through a policy of its own making, the US faces the prospect of a debt default.
A law dating to 1917 led to a fixed aggregate dollar limit on borrowing — the debt ceiling — which can be raised only by agreement of Congress and the president. That spectre hung over the US for the first half of 2023 as the US grew perilously close to a debt limit of nearly US$31.4 trillion ($42 trillion) and politicians ran down the clock.
The standoff was resolved in late May, but it fuelled uncertainty again about the commitment of US political leaders to put risky rhetoric aside and meet bond repayments on a mounting debt burden.
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2. What does AA+ mean?
The AA+ rating is one level below AAA, meaning the US no longer has what Fitch defines as the “highest credit quality”.
While Fitch says that AA ratings denote “expectations of very low default risk,” that is a step down from “the lowest expectation of default risk” for AAA borrowers.
Similarly, the top rating is assigned only in cases of “exceptional strong capacity” to meet financial commitments, while AA tier credit scores indicate a “very strong capacity”, according to Fitch.
Globally, Fitch is considered the smallest of the “big three” rating firms, which include Moody’s Investors Service and S&P.
3. How are government bonds rated?
Rating companies assess the financial strength of issuers including governments and give them credit scores ranking their ability to meet debt payments.
Investors often rely on credit ratings when purchasing bonds and their assessments can play a key role in determining how much interest a borrower pays to raise funds in capital markets.
Still, US interest rates are held down by demand for the US dollar, the world’s reserve currency and for US Treasuries, which are considered the world’s benchmark risk-free asset.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement after the rating cut that the move was “arbitrary and based on outdated data” and would not change investors’ views on US government debt.
Still, the yield on 30-year bond had climbed to the highest in almost nine months before the rating was cut as the US prepared to ramp up sales to fund a widening budget deficit.
4. What does the rating cut mean for markets?
When S&P cut the US government’s credit rating in 2011, it fed into concern about the US economy at a time when Europe was in the midst of a sovereign debt crisis. Even so, the move had little long-term impact. Investors poured into US assets and government debt yields declined by year-end.
Part of that was because the US economy was showing strength, while at the same time the European Union was struggling to safeguard its currency union.
This time around, financial markets are also concerned about the US economy, but the focus is on the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive cycle of interest-rate hikes in decades to quell inflation.
In that sense, what the Fed does is likely to have a far larger bearing on US interest rates than the Fitch rating cut. Moody’s still assigns the US its top rating, which has become all the more important now after the Fitch downgrade.
5. What does this mean for other ratings?
The group of countries that still get top marks on their credit worthiness is a declining bunch.
Australia, Germany, Singapore, and Switzerland still have the top ratings from all three firms, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Fitch also rates Canada at AA+.
China, the world’s second-biggest economy after the US, has an A+ score from the firm, three notches lower. The sovereign’s rating can act as a ceiling on how high a company in that country is assessed but not in all cases.
The number of companies with a AAA level ratings from any of the big three assessors is a dwindling cohort, but it includes household names such as Microsoft Corp. and Johnson & Johnson.
Infographics: Bloomberg
