“Credit spreads are not pricing in enough risk,” Barclays analysts Bradley Rogoff and Dominique Toublan warned as they updated their forecasts Friday after a flurry of tariff updates and mounting recession fears blew out their prior outlook. “The uncertainty about the magnitude and speed of the tariff implementation is a key driver of this change.”
Just a few months into the year and Wall Street credit analysts are ripping up their forecasts and penciling in a new, grimmer outlook after this week’s jolt to the market.
Prognosticators from Barclays to Goldman Sachs were caught flatfooted this week and had to revise their estimates as the selloff rippling through the markets drove corporate bond spreads wider and saw a series of borrowers postpone sales.
