“In all, there appear to be heightened concerns over recession risk among market participants and economic agents, which could become self-fulfilling if they persist prompting them to change behaviour, e.g. by cutting investment or spending,” the strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note. “Market concerns of a risk of policy error and subsequent reversal have increased.”
The S&P 500 now implies an 85% chance of a US recession amid fears of a policy error by the Federal Reserve, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists.
The warning from quant and derivatives strategists is based on the average 26% decline for the S&P 500 during the past 11 recessions and follows the US benchmark’s collapse into a bear market amid concerns about surging inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes.
