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US stock market faces reality check in high-bar earnings season

Bloomberg
Bloomberg • 5 min read
US stock market faces reality check in high-bar earnings season
Fourth-quarter earnings season will officially kick off on Wednesday, led by JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup and BlackRock. More key companies will deliver results the following week, including Netflix, Procter & Gamble and 3M. Photo: Bloomberg
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The US stock market’s strongest two-year rally since the dot-com bubble is heading into its next big test as companies start releasing quarterly earnings, providing a major gut check on whether valuations have outrun the underlying reality. 

On Friday, the S&P 500 Index slid 1.5% — its worst drop since mid-December — as an unexpected surge in hiring solidified speculation that the US Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates again until the second half of the year. 

But the bigger issue is the high bar set by investors’ estimates: The reports are expected to show that the resilient economy increased the earnings of the companies in the S&P 500 by 7.3% during the fourth quarter from a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

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