The junta will probably retain control of the main cities in the Myanmar heartland where the majority Bamar ethnic group resides, but even that control will be tenuous. Junta leaders will face internal discord and senior leaders may be ousted.
For many of us in Southeast Asia, the conflict in Myanmar seems far away. There has been limited spillover from the fighting into other parts of the region except for the immediate border areas in Thailand. Neither has there been a flood of refugees and so far, foreign investors have not been scared away from the rest of the region because of the turmoil in Myanmar.
Yet, intense fighting since October could bring the conflict closer to the rest of us. A prolonged stalemate could leave Myanmar as an increasingly dysfunctional state. Insurgents from ethnic minorities could soon be running their little states in the border regions.
