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The trade war just got a lot more complicated

Manu Bhaskaran
Manu Bhaskaran • 10 min read
The trade war just got a lot more complicated
The Supreme Court strikes down key Trump tariffs, sending global trade, the US economy and political strategy into uncertainty. Photo: Bloomberg
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There’s never a dull moment in world trade these days, certainly not since US President Donald Trump unleashed his trade war last April. Last week’s US Supreme Court judgement invalidating much of his tariffs will impede the president’s trade strategy, but Trump is undeterred, vowing during his State of the Union speech on Feb 24 to impose new tariffs under other laws.

So, high-tariff and other protectionist policies will persist — but there will be further legal battles, as these other laws do not seem to give him the authority to impose the tariffs he envisages.

Consequently, the world economy will drift into an even greater period of uncertainty. Doubts will linger over the effective tariff rate, and confusion will reign as trade deals based on his now-illegal tariffs begin to unravel. Without the tariff revenues he had anticipated, America’s fiscal position will also deteriorate, adding pressure on the US dollar and bond markets.

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