As a diehard China optimist for most of the past 25 years, I haven’t come to this conclusion lightly. My Yale course, “The Next China,” made the case for a powerful shift in the Chinese growth model from an investment- and export-led economy to one driven by domestic consumption.
China is at a critical juncture. Its deflation-prone, debt-intensive economy is seriously underperforming. Its government has become embroiled in a major superpower conflict with the US. It is staring down the barrel of a demographic crisis.
Worst of all, Chinese authorities respond to these challenges more with ideology and stale tactics from the past rather than breakthrough reforms. Imaginative solutions to tough problems are in scarce supply.
