However, our assessment is that the hit to the global economy is likely to be more severe than the consensus view reflected in the IMF's forecasts. We foresee the global economy being damaged soon by a high level of trade distortions, aggravated by a long period of great uncertainty.
Most forecasters still expect the global economy to slow from last year, but they anticipate it will avoid an outright decline in output. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), for instance, is projecting world output to decelerate from 3.3% last year to 2.8% this year and to then pick up speed a little to 3% next year.
Like other forecasters, the IMF has cautioned that there is a wide margin of error around such projections. That is understandable since these estimates are best guesses made at a time of unprecedented uncertainty.
