This piece considers four potential pathways under the theme of “America First”: selective multilateralism focuses on ad-hoc coalitions aligned with American goals; transactional burden-sharing that compels allies to contribute more in return for US support; an intensified form of unilateralism where the US can impose its interests without consultation, and what I would call an “isolationist retrenchment” where the US withdraws from international affairs to shifts its focus from most international affairs to concentrate heavily on domestic priorities. These pathways span from the most cooperative to the least, reflecting the decreasing levels of US engagement and strategic leadership.
With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the Indo-Pacific faces an era of heightened unpredictability. The region must closely monitor the statements, decisions, and behaviours of President Trump and his administration to discern which pathway his leadership is likely to pursue.
Clarity on this direction is critical for shaping regional responses and strategies, especially during the first 100 days of his presidency. These early actions will provide crucial insights into his administration’s approach, enabling governments and businesses to mitigate risks and capitalise on opportunities.
