My best guess (and worst nightmare) is that Israel will continue to ignore international pleas for a ceasefire in Gaza, where 2.3 million Palestinians have been impoverished for decades.
If one event dominates the coming year, it will almost certainly be the US presidential election. Barring something unexpected, we will likely see a rematch of Joe Biden versus Donald Trump, with the outcome being perilously uncertain. One year out, polls in key swing states give Trump the advantage.
The election will matter not just for the US but for the world. The outcome may hinge on the 2024 economic outlook, which will partly depend on how the latest conflagration in the Middle East evolves.
