SINGAPORE (Oct 6): The US or global economy appears unlikely to be heading to a recession, despite indicators pointing to a late phase in the business cycle and with the threat of monetary policy tightening looming in the horizon.

This is what David Lafferty, chief market strategist, Natixis Global Asset Management, expects because he says the traditional business cycle framework may no longer be the best way to analyse trends for signs of recession.

“It is often pointed out that the post-GFC recovery has been the most anaemic in history, averaging just 2.1% annually since Q3 of 2009, while typical US recovery/expansions average 3%–5%,” says Lafferty.

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