Will Asean pivot to China now?

SINGAPORE (Nov 16): Now that Donald Trump is the US President Elect, market watchers expect the ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership to lapse, dashing the hopes of external markets that rely on US demand.

That means Singapore would be the hardest hit among Asean countries by a fall in final demand from the US. Citi estimates that 8.4% of the country’s gross domestic product is exposed to the US, particularly in the services trade. Vietnam trails behind with an 8% exposure, followed by Malaysia with a 6.3% exposure.

However, Citi analyst Kit Wei Zheng points out that Malaysia has a large final demand hedge from China of 8.4%, compared with the impact of localisation of supply chains within China on Singapore’s exports.

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