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Look upstream to SIA Engineering, China Aviation Oil as war breaks out: OCBC

Jovi Ho
Jovi Ho • 4 min read
Look upstream to SIA Engineering, China Aviation Oil as war breaks out: OCBC
In an extreme scenario where the Strait of Hormuz faces a prolonged blockage, OCBC does not rule out the possibility of Brent crude “surging into triple digits”. Photo: Bloomberg
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Ongoing disruptions in the Middle East airspace, which is causing significant flight delays and cancellations, as well as a surge in airfares, may weigh on tourist arrivals in Singapore, says OCBC Group Research analyst Ada Lim. This comes on top of an 8.1% y-o-y drop in visitors to 1.5 million in January.

That said, the extent and severity is heavily dependent on how long the conflict persists, and corresponding spillover to macroeconomic conditions. A potential mitigating factor is that Singapore’s top five source markets — China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia and India — constituted 54.9% of total visitor arrivals in 2025, adds Lim in a March 6 note.

Given the soft visitor numbers, it came as no surprise that revenue per available room (RevPAR) for January slipped 1.2% y-o-y to $220, says Lim.

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