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PhillipCapital downgrades ThaiBev to ‘accumulate’ on the back of structural decline in spirit demand

Felicia Tan
Felicia Tan • 2 min read
PhillipCapital downgrades ThaiBev to ‘accumulate’ on the back of structural decline in spirit demand
Analyst Paul Chew has also lowered his target price estimate to 56 cents from 64 cents previously due to a lower target FY2025 P/E multiple of 12 times from 14 times previously. Photo: Bloomberg
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PhillipCapital analyst Paul Chew has downgraded his call on Thai Beverage (SGX:Y92) (ThaiBev) to “accumulate” from “buy” as he expects ThaiBev’s FY2025 patmi to come in below his estimates from poor performance in the group’s spirits segment.

While the group’s results for the 1QFY2025 ended Dec 31, 2024, were within Chew’s expectations with revenue and ebitda at 25% and 30% of his full-year forecasts respectively, the spirits business, which was the group’s biggest revenue contributor, fell.

Spirits sales revenue for the quarter fell by 4.8% y-o-y to 32.24 billion baht as total sales volume fell by 6.2% y-o-y, which is the weakest in eight quarters. “We believe [the lower spirits volume] is in part due to overstocking in the prior quarter,” Chew writes.

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