“We will still see news flow around tariffs going forward, but I think we have a good sense of where things are going to turn out,” says Villamin, who believes that tariffs will not fall below 10%. “Why? Trump needs the US$200 billion [$257 billion] for his budget.”
The global economic order is undergoing a strategic reset, demanding that investors adapt. According to Norman Villamin, group chief strategist at Union Bancaire Privée (UBP), US tariffs have evolved from a trade tactic into a central pillar of Washington’s fiscal strategy. This shift has significant implications for inflation, interest rates and investment allocations for the rest of 2025 and beyond.
While the US may experience some economic deceleration in the second half, the fundamentals remain more resilient than the headlines suggest. From Villamin’s perspective, the bigger story lies in how fiscal policy, particularly in the US and Europe, is now the dominant driver of global capital markets.
