The Straits Times Index drifted lower, losing around 25 points week-on-week to end at 2,472. Its movement was a lot more benign than the volatility that has befallen the US markets. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), currently at 29.5 has been creeping higher from a trough of 25.5 on Sept 15. That maybe the new normal for the VIX as overvalued tech stocks face reality.
Locally, the STI’s short term stochastics is at the bottom of its range and an upturn could provide some reprieve from the downwards drift. Any rebound is likely to be tepid. ADX is rising, and the DIs are negatively placed. In addition, quarterly momentum has resumed its retreat after failing to move above its own moving average.
These indicators suggest that overall pressures are likely to remain downward. Support at 2,484 was breached albeit on low volume. The next short term support is at 2,450.
The declining 50- and 100-day moving averages are at 2,537 and 2,579, and these represent levels of resistance for the index.
Singapore Airlines ($3.39) remains one of the most closely watched stocks among local market participants. The price chart shows a clear positive divergence between price and quarterly momentum. That’s a positive signal. On the flip side, volume is at an ebb. The moving averages continue to trend lower, providing resistance at $3.60. While the downside is limited, and prices could have bottomed at the $3.20 to $3.30, on the lows reached on Aug 4 this year, an immediate recovery is unlikely. Hence, SIA has yet to complete a base formation and stage a confirmed breakout. Shareholders have to wait till volume picks up on white candle days, and that may materialise only in Dec.
