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Trump wins the trade war — and the advantage of future US relative productivity gains

Tong Kooi Ong + Asia Analytica
Tong Kooi Ong + Asia Analytica • 15 min read
Trump wins the trade war — and the advantage of future US relative productivity gains
Most academics and economists are critical of tariffs, maintaining that there is no winner in a trade war. Photo: The Edge Malaysia
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As the dust on US President Donald Trump’s trade war with the world settles, one thing is clear. The US has won. As it turned out, its economic leverage — the power of American consumerism — is truly significant. And, thanks to Trump’s “Art of the Deal” — his aggressive, bluntness (even nastiness) and willingness to apply maximalist pressure and threats against friends and allies (because he can), more so than foes — the US has managed to extract nearly all the concessions it sought, with barely any retaliation from any nation, save for China. Japan, the UK and even the European Union (EU), which as a bloc is the world’s single-largest consumer market, caved despite calls by some member countries to take a tougher stance.

“It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, brought together to affirm their common values and to defend their common interests, resigns itself to submission,” French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou wrote on X after the deal was announced. The European Commission has since suspended all planned countermeasures for six months (read: indefinite).

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