Oxford Economics’ current forecast for global GDP growth at 2.8% in 2025 “aligns perfectly” with its prediction from December 2024. “We acknowledge the US outlook is bifurcated, but we remain relatively optimistic on US GDP growth compared with consensus – we see the economy's areas of strength outweighing the pockets of weakness,” says May.
US economic exceptionalism will not end in 2026, and will likely continue, states Ben May, director of global macro research at Oxford Economics, in a note published on Nov 18.
“Notwithstanding the uncertainty arising from Donald Trump's US presidential victory a year ago, we believed world GDP growth would remain steady and that worries about the US entering a recession were unfounded,” May says. “Both views were accurate.”
