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US market rally is built on narrative that is loaded with risk

Geoffrey Morgan / Bloomberg
Geoffrey Morgan / Bloomberg • 7 min read
US market rally is built on narrative that is loaded with risk
Even the most bullish are clear-eyed about a growing list of issues that could potentially stop the party / Photo: Bloomberg
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Bullish sentiment toward stocks is rampant in the US, as one Wall Street strategist after another raises their target for an S&P 500 Index that is repeatedly setting new records.

Yet as optimism about further gains has solidified into something resembling a consensus, even the most bullish are clear-eyed about a growing list of issues that could potentially stop the party. With valuations at among the richest levels of this century, the most commonly cited risks for a hard market landing include cracks emerging in the artificial-intelligence theme, percolating damage from President Donald Trump’s trade war, swelling government debt loads and a weakening labour market.

“All new highs are positive, except for the final one,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, said by phone. He does expect the rally to continue, partly because US stocks are hitting records at the same time as other developed equity markets, which has been a strong signal historically.

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