Businesses expect long trade fight even after Trump

(Aug 20): Let's not get too excited in response to talks about talks among officials from the US and China. Tussles over trade are likely to be the norm no matter who wins the midterm elections or sits in the Oval Office.

That was the view of most people polled by Chan Chun Sing, Singapore's trade minister, at an American Chamber of Commerce lunch last week. Chan asked for a show of hands on which scenario is most likely: trade tensions will dissipate after the November congressional elections, wane after “personalities” leave office, or continue indefinitely so that executives should brace for the long haul. The last received an overwhelming show of hands.

The vote was instructive because it's indicative of a growing realization, not just in Singapore, that there are long-term forces shaping the US-China trade war that go beyond simply Donald Trump. There are few votes in full-throated advocacy of trade even in places that, in theory, should be all for it.

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