(Nov 15): Sell the Indian rupee and Philippine peso. Buy the Malaysian ringgit and Singapore dollar. Bet the ringgit will strengthen against Indonesia’s rupiah.

These are some of the trades that strategists are advocating as a surge of almost 40% in Brent crude since June clouds the outlook for Asian currencies, complicating the performance of local economies and the path of local monetary policy.

“If oil prices rise further and continue to stay high for some time, it will complicate the inflation picture for some Asian central banks,” said Charlie Lay, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Singapore. “Given the strong synchronized global recovery and firm domestic demand fueled in part by low interest rates, inflation is already beginning to rise across Asia.”

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