(April 21): Two major Thai banks struck a cautious tone on their 2026 outlook after reporting weak first-quarter net income, underscoring growing risks from Middle East conflict and a global energy shock.
SCB X pcl, the country’s largest lender by market value, posted more than an 18% drop in first-quarter net income to 10.2 billion baht, missing expectations. Kasikornbank pcl, the second-largest, also reported softer results, with profit declining 3% after excluding a one-off investment-related compensation gain.
The subdued performance highlights how quickly global geopolitical shocks are feeding into the Thai economy. The nation is highly exposed to the Middle East through energy imports, purchasing more than half of its crude from the region, leaving it vulnerable to oil price spikes and supply disruptions.
The Middle East tensions are likely to persist, heightening economic uncertainty and weighing on future operating performance, Kattiya Indaravijaya, Kasikornbank’s CEO, said in a statement following the earnings release Tuesday. Rising energy and logistics costs are also fuelling inflationary pressures, further straining businesses and households, she added.
The gauge of Thai banking stocks has fallen more than 5% from its 2026 peak reached in late February.
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Separately, SCB X CEO Arthid Nanthawithaya pointed to broader ripple effects, including higher import costs and headwinds for Thailand’s key export and tourism sectors, with the impact filtering through to both companies and consumers.
Krungsri Securities may cut its net profit forecast for SCB X after the earnings miss. Meanwhile, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Sarah Jane Mahmud and Diksha Gera said Kasikornbank’s profit is likely to remain under pressure this year from elevated provisioning, weak loan growth and tighter margins.
Still, both Kattiya and Arthid said their banks are committed to supporting customers as they navigate the ongoing uncertainty.
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