“This may partly be driven by exporters trying to front-load shipments in order to mitigate the damage of a potential trade war next year,” said Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “I think the economy will improve modestly in the fourth quarter, but the trade war may start in the first quarter of next year. We cannot rely on exports to carry China’s economy.”
China’s export growth surged in October to the fastest since July 2022, extending a months-long boost to the economy that may be jeopardized by Donald Trump’s reelection and his tariff threats.
Exports rose 12.7% from a year earlier to US$309 billion ($410.17 billion), the customs administration said Thursday, significantly exceeding any economist’s forecast. The trade surplus in the month climbed to the third-highest on record, as factories ramped up shipments ahead of Christmas holidays and likely in anticipation of worsening trade tensions.
