(March 19): A new US intelligence assessment backed away from previous projections that China wants to be ready to retake Taiwan by force as early as next year, reflecting a broader push by the Trump administration to adopt a more conciliatory tone towards Beijing.
The intelligence community’s annual threat assessment said instead that Beijing has no set timeline and would rather unify with the island “without the use of force, if possible”.
“Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification,” said the annual threat assessment released on Wednesday.
Previous assessments have said Taiwan is a “significant potential flashpoint for confrontation” between the US and China, and that Beijing would continue to apply military and economic pressure to “project power over Taiwan”.
But this year’s version said “Chinese officials recognise that an amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be extremely challenging and carry a high risk of failure, especially in the event of US intervention”. It said China wants to “set the conditions for eventual unification with Taiwan short of conflict” and would prefer not to use force.
“China publicly insists that unification with Taiwan is required to achieve its goal of ‘national rejuvenation’ by 2049,” it said.
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The assessment underscores the lack of clarity around US evaluations of China’s intentions, and just how much US forecasts have shifted since 2021. That’s when Admiral Phil Davidson, then leading the Indo-Pacific Command, suggested that China wanted to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan.
“Taiwan is clearly one of their ambitions before that, and I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact in the next six years,” Davidson said.
Those remarks, later characterised as the “Davidson Window”, fanned confusion, with some commentators suggesting Davidson believed an invasion would come by that date, while officials insisted it meant China just wanted to be ready for an attack by then.
See also: Will China try to invade Taiwan?
That timeline was echoed by a Defense Department report issued last December that said China was making steady progress towards its 2027 goals, including that the country “expects to be able to fight and win a war on Taiwan by the end of 2027”.
The shifting outlook reflected in the 2026 report dovetails with a wider push by President Donald Trump’s team to soften its stance towards China and President Xi Jinping. On Tuesday, Trump postponed a planned meeting with Xi because of the war in Iran, but said he has a “good relationship with China” and “looks forward” to seeing the Chinese leader.
Other hints of the softened US stance were scattered through the latest intelligence assessment. It stripped out language included in the 2025 report that “China stands out as the actor most capable of threatening US interests globally”.
It also removed language that said China was deploying coercive measures “to advance unification with Taiwan, project power in East Asia, and reverse perceived US hegemony”.
The report also characterised comments on Taiwan by Japanese leader Sanae Takaichi last year as a “significant shift for a sitting Japanese prime minister”. That assessment of a change is at odds with the view of its main ally in East Asia.
Trump is scheduled to meet Takaichi at the White House on Thursday in what is likely to be a key test of the relationship between the US and Japan following the Asian nation’s reluctance to commit to sending ships to the Strait of Hormuz.
Takaichi said in November that a scenario in which China tries to take Taiwan by force could become a survival threatening situation for Japan. The comments sparked anger in Beijing and a series of reprisals including a warning on travel to Japan and some export curbs after what it saw as a change of Tokyo’s stance.
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Takaichi has insisted that Tokyo’s position remained unchanged, a view that was reiterated by Japan’s top government spokesman on Thursday.
“The government’s position has been consistent from the outset,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said. “The assessment that it represents a major policy shift is not accurate.”
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