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Global trade to drop 5% this year amid geopolitical headwinds

Bloomberg
Bloomberg • 2 min read
Global trade to drop 5% this year amid geopolitical headwinds
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Global trade will decline in 2023 by about 5% from last year’s record as high borrowing costs weigh on economies, US-China tensions redirect supply chains and more policies restricting cross-border commerce emerge, a UN agency said.

The value of goods and services trade will reach US$30.7 trillion compared with US$32.2 trillion in 2022, according to the Geneva-based United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. A US$2 trillion, or 8%, slump in merchandise trade is the main reason. Services trade this year will increase by US$500 billion, or about 7%, from a year ago, UNCTAD said in a report Monday.

Lower costs for goods affected by high inflation a year ago is also a reason for the decline. “Even though the value of traded goods decreased in 2023, the slightly positive trend in the volume of international trade suggests a resilient global demand for imported products,” the report said.

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