He continues: “With the underlying dynamics of the global economy and the US economy, I would probably have said that the recession risk that emanated from that at least as we were turning into the new year, was probably something more normal, which would be 15% to 20%.”
With the increasingly uncertain outlook posed by US President Donald Trump’s administration, Bruce Kasman, chief global economist at JP Morgan (JPM), believes there is a roughly 40% risk of a US and global recession.
This is up from 30% at the start of the year, following certain policies implemented by the US that Kasman deems “concerning”.
