The WTO’s forecasts – which are in line with IMF and OECD projections – mark a major deceleration from last year’s 9.7% growth in global trade. That was fueled by consumer purchases of household items while travel and other service industries were limited during the depths of the Covid pandemic.
Global merchandise trade will slow next year as “multiple shocks” ranging from Russia’s war in Ukraine, high energy costs in Europe and US monetary policy tightening raise manufacturing costs and squeeze households, the World Trade Organization said.
The Geneva-based institution said it expects trade growth to fall sharply in 2023 to 1%, compared with its previous forecast of 3.4%, according to a report released Wednesday. The WTO also raised its projection for growth in merchandise trade this year to 3.5%, up from its previous projection of 3%.
