(June 30): Asian equities rose, leaving the regional benchmark on track for its best quarterly gain in 17 years as technology stocks rallied. The yen weakened to a four-decade low against the dollar.
Stocks in Japan and South Korea rose, lifting the MSCI Asia Pacific Index by 0.5%. The regional gauge had gained 20% heading into the final trading day of the quarter. Asian markets took their cue from Wall Street, where a rally in chipmakers drove the S&P 500 up 1.2% and the Nasdaq 100 nearly twice as much on Monday.
Meanwhile, the yen traded around 161.93 a dollar early Tuesday after depreciating to 161.98 versus the greenback in New York trading. The currency’s slide to the weakest level since 1986 will generate unease in Japan and put traders on high alert for authorities wading into the market.
Monday’s rebound in stocks after the recent AI-driven selloff put global equities on track for their best quarter in almost six years. Investors now turn their focus to the US-Iran talks Tuesday and US June jobs data on Thursday that may offer clues on whether the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.
In the US, the stock resurgence has defied skeptics, coming in the face of war, an oil supply shock and inflation jitters. Since bottoming three months ago, the S&P 500 has staged one of the swiftest rebounds this century, gaining 20% from its March 30 low to its June 2 peak — something it has done just three other times since 2000.
“The bounce we’re seeing is a welcome development for the bulls,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak. “We continue to believe strongly that the action in the tech sector will continue to be the main driver in the stock market.”
See also: US stock futures rise, oil pares climb on Iran
While tech doesn’t have to keep outperforming in a big way, the sector needs to refrain from declining in a significant manner due to its heavy weight in the S&P 500, he noted. Otherwise, individual investors could start “rotating” toward cash, especially after hearing so much talk about bubbles in the past year, Maley added.
Elsewhere, American crude held its advance before expected US-Iran talks in Doha. The commodity traded around US$70.15 a barrel. Gold was little changed around US$4,015 an ounce. The dollar slipped, and US Treasury yields were little changed during the New York session.
Attention in Asia will be on the yen. While the weaker Japanese currency has boosted exporters’ profits and helped propel the country’s stocks to record highs, it has also raised import costs, squeezed households and added to political pressure on Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government.
See also: Asia stocks jump with US futures on Micron outlook
The Bank of Japan lifted its benchmark interest rate on June 16 to 1%, the highest since 1995. Yet the impact was minimal, as traders expect the Fed to stay hawkish going forward.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said peace talks with Iran are set to resume on Tuesday after both sides agreed to halt a series of tit-for-tat attacks over the Strait of Hormuz. The renewed strikes served as a reminder of the fragility of their truce.
Calm prevailed in the Treasury market as the US Supreme Court ruled that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook can stay in her job for now, reinforcing the central bank’s independence from the White House.
“A Fed perceived as subject to political direction would likely introduce a persistent risk premium to US dollar-based assets,” said Michael Reynolds at Glenmede. “Removing that tail risk, even one that markets had only remotely priced, is a quiet but meaningful positive for the stability of the long-term rate outlook.”
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