Goldman’s note outlined a range of possible outcomes for the metal, with a baseline forecast for a surge to US$4,000 an ounce by mid-2026; a so-called tail-risk scenario of US$4,500; and an estimate of almost US$5,000 if just 1% of the privately-owned US Treasury market were to flow into gold.
Gold could rally to almost US$5,000 ($6,443.30) an ounce if the Federal Reserve’s credibility were damaged and investors shifted just a small portion of holdings from Treasuries into bullion, Goldman Sachs Group said.
“A scenario where Fed independence is damaged would likely lead to higher inflation, lower stock and long-dated bond prices, and an erosion of the dollar’s reserve-currency status,” analysts including Samantha Dart said in a note. “In contrast, gold is a store of value that doesn’t rely on institutional trust.”
