(April 9): Brent crude is set to average more than US$100 a barrel through 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“The situation remains fluid,” analysts including Daan Struyven said in a note following the start of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, noting comments from US Vice President JD Vance that the truce was fragile. “We continue to see the risks to our price forecast as skewed to the upside,” they said.
The oil market remains fixated on the strait, which has been largely closed since the US and Israeli attack on Iran in February that ignited the war. While Tehran and Washington said they paused the fighting in exchange for a reopening of the conduit, there’s little clarity on what was agreed.
At present, Goldman’s base-case outlook is for flows through the strait to start picking up this weekend, followed by a gradual, one-month recovery in Persian Gulf exports to pre-war levels. Under that scenario, Brent is seen averaging US$82 a barrel in the third quarter and US$80 in the fourth.
Under the bank’s so-called adverse view, including the reopening being “postponed” for one month, Brent was expected to average above US$100 a barrel in the second half, the analysts said.
Another outcome, based on a longer closure and the loss of some regional production, came with even higher forecasts, with Brent seen at US$120 a barrel in the third quarter and US$115 in the fourth.
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US President Donald Trump said it had been “agreed, a long time ago” that the Strait of Hormuz would be open and safe, according to a social-media post, while also threatening that there would be a resumption of military hostilities against Iran if the agreement were not complied with in full.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization announced two so-called designated safe routes for vessels entering and exiting the strait, according to state-run Nour News. The revised traffic pattern centres around Larak Island, roughly 30km (19 miles) off Iran’s coast at Bandar Abbas, it said.
Brent was last near US$97 a barrel, after sinking 13% on Wednesday when the truce was announced. The benchmark has risen as high as US$119.50 during the crisis.
Uploaded by Felyx Teoh
