(June 18): An impending wave of oil that’s been trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz is set to be unleashed on Asia, suddenly swamping a region that had managed to make up for lost supply in recent weeks.
Around 31 supertankers, capable of carrying about 62 million barrels of crude, are stuck inside the Persian Gulf and set to sail out once the waterway opens up, according to Signal Group data. The actual tally may still be higher yet, with some vessels possibly turning their satellite transponders off.
The gush could happen soon after the US and Iran signed an interim deal that will see the strait reopen. The oil would take about one week to get to India, or three weeks to East Asia.
The crude, however, is coming at a time when refiners in Asia are already well supplied for this month and next after scrambling to replace Middle Eastern flows, according to traders familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named as they’re not authorised to speak publicly. They’d also cut processing rates as high prices curbed demand for fuels.
It’s a stark reversal from the early stages of the war, when prices were spiking and the oil market was warning of dramatic shortages. Refiners locked in purchases from places like the US, while China had largely stayed out of the market, and countries like Japan tapped local storage.
See also: Goldman says Hormuz oil flows may recover to only 70% after war
At the same time, Persian Gulf sellers like Abu Dhabi National Oil Co and Kuwait Petroleum Corp have been marketing supply and getting some of their barrels out of Hormuz. Oil production in Iraq has also jumped and is set to continue climbing.
Already, more tankers are moving out of the Persian Gulf. Three oil supertankers controlled by Bahri, Saudi Arabia’s national shipping company, have emerged in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday after last being seen inside the Persian Gulf about two months ago.
The deluge is large enough to prompt Asian refiners to consider putting the barrels into operational storage tanks, or consider an increase in processing rates, the traders said.
See also: Oil slides as Trump’s Hormuz agreement lifts outlook for supply
“We now assume that Persian Gulf exports normalise to pre-war levels by the end of July,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc analysts including Daan Struyven said in a note.
Prices have reacted to the imminent flows of crude. The forward curve for benchmark Middle Eastern crudes such as Dubai and Murban had flipped into a bearish contango pattern for the first time since the beginning of the war. Oman crude was priced at a discount to its underlying Dubai benchmark this week, a reversal of its usual premiums. And at least one diesel cargo traded at a discount to its benchmark this week, compared with the premiums it had gone for previously.
At least one South Korean refiner had been offering a larger-than-usual amount of distillate fuel — a category including diesel and jet fuel — for sale, traders said. Refiners are trying to bring supply to market ahead of a full reopening of Hormuz, which may tank prices, they added.
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