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CDL vs UOL? depends on your investment timeframe

Goola Warden
Goola Warden • 9 min read
CDL vs UOL? depends on your investment timeframe
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Investors have a choice of two relatively sizeable developers based on their market capitalisation. City Developments (CDL) was valued at around $8.5 billion, while UOL Group’s market capitalisation is $9.28 billion. With their market values closely matched, which developer offers better value to investors?

The answer rests on the investment horizon. During the Feb 27 results briefing, CDL group CEO Sherman Kwek announced plans to divest its legacy UK portfolio, which CDL acquired from 2013 onwards and is valued at about $800 million, and a strategic review. The strategic review should be completed by June.

Kwek adds: “In around September last year, we engaged a global advisory firm to help us do a strategic review of our strategy and operations. We are still in the process. The first step they took was an investor perception audit, in which they reached out to the buy and sell sides to gather feedback on how we are viewed by shareholders, investors and analysts. We want to come up with something that will close this perception gap and allow you to measure us and hold us more accountable for what we say we’re going to do.”

In 2024, CDL announced a divestment programme of its non-core assets, which included the UK legacy portfolio, but ultimately divested mainly Singapore assets and a Tokyo property. In 2025, almost all of the group’s $2 billion of contracted divestments were completed, except for Quayside Isle, which was completed in February.

Windfall from divestment

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The $2 billion divestment was underpinned by the sale of a 50.1% stake in South Beach for an agreed value of $2.75 billion, representing a 100% stake. No surprise, then, that in 2025 the investment properties segment was the largest contributor to pre-tax profit, generating $357.8 million. In addition to South Beach, CDL also divested Bespoke Hotel Osaka Shinsaibashi, 1250 Lakeside in Sunnyvale, City Industrial Building, the retail component of Suzhou Hong Leong City Center, a strata-titled car park comprising 82 lots at The Venue Shoppes, Piccadilly Galleria and strata units at Fortune Centre. Interestingly, CDL also divested Ransomes Wharf in Battersea for an amount equivalent to $115 million, compared to its acquisition price of $103.4 million in early 2025.

The financial statement stated that CDL’s board intends to declare ordinary cash dividends at least once annually, with a payout ratio of at least 35% based on reported patmi “to better align with shareholders’ interests and enhance transparency and clarity of shareholder returns”. The statement added that the group’s financial performance, projected cash flow, capital requirements for business growth and external factors will be considered when determining the dividend payout; and that the board will review the dividend policy from time to time and reserves the right to modify, amend and update the policy. “We’ve committed to our dividend policy of 35% of patmi,” Kwek confirms.

Over the years, CDL has paid special dividends (see table). A specific payout ratio causes dividends to rise and fall with patmi, which can be lumpy for developers. For instance, excluding the divestments, group CFO Yiong Yim Ming says patmi would be around $100 million, but developers usually consider asset sales as part of their operating patmi.

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Yiong points out that valuations are conducted by external valuers at year-end. “I want to assure the audience that these NAV [net asset value] calculations, for the investment property portion, are externally valued.” CDL uses historical cost valuations, in which properties are recorded at cost and depreciated in accordance with the applicable depreciation policies. Hence, during year-end and half-year results, CDL announces NAV per share based on historical cost.

However, CDL also announces revalued NAV (RNAV) based on investment properties, which are marked to market, and an RNAV based on both market valuations for its investment properties and hotels. In addition, CDL announces gearing ratios based on historical cost and on the investment properties’ market valuation.

Steady, coherent, cohesive

UOL Group has a different message. First off, UOL’s management and board have not announced a strategic review. Management’s message remains coherent and cohesive, as evidenced by the results briefing on Feb 26.

UOL chief investment and asset officer Shirley Ng articulated UOL’s total portfolio strategy, which comprises buy, sell and hold.

In 2025, for the “sell” part, UOL divested Kinex for $375 million, which was below its book value of $370 million. UOL also divested ParkRoyal Yangon for $21.8 million and ParkRoyal Saigon for $15.7 million. Based on UOL’s financial statement, the group booked a profit of $17.7 million from the sale of the two ParkRoyals.

On the buy side of the strategy, in 2025, UOL acquired a 45% stake in Thomson View and a 70% stake in Dorset Road. Elsewhere, UOL acquired a 50% stake in a Grade A building at 388 George Street, Sydney, and in Varley Park, a purpose-built student accommodation fully let to the University of Brighton.

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Ng says: “As part of total portfolio management strategy, one of the key things that we do is an analysis which involves assessing which assets to acquire, which assets to retain and which assets to dispose, so that we can enhance returns and strengthen the resilience of our portfolio.”

“Under this category, we were also active in replenishing our landbank. Besides the Thomson View site and the site in Dorset, we acquired The Puyuan in Shanghai,” she adds, referring to a 10% stake in the Hongkou site.

Under the hold portion, UOL completed the asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs) of Pan Pacific Perth and ParkRoyal Parramatta. UOL’s 50.37%-owned subsidiary, Singapore Land Group (SingLand), completed the AEI of West Mall and Singapore Land Tower. Ongoing AEI or redevelopment projects include NoMad on Orchard Road (the former Faber House), owned by UOL, and the redevelopment of The Clifford and the rejuvenation of Marina Square, which are owned mainly by SingLand.

Liam Wee Sin, UOL group CEO, says: “The [development of] The Clifford at Raffles Place is ongoing, and a very exciting project. I think it’ll be an exceptional project. Very importantly, it’s got dual downtown connectivity, with a direct connection to the Raffles Place MRT Station and also a direct link to Marina Bay waterfront via the second storey. And again, it’s very good timing. We’ll be delivering into a strong market. We don’t see much meaningful supply coming to the CBD over the next few years.”

In Liam’s view, the Marina Square transformation will be the group’s most exciting project. “We will be looking to transform it into Singapore’s first hyper mix development with the addition of new buildings comprising the residential tower, the service apartment block and a mixed-use tower with hospitality, office and performing arts space. And one key enhancement is the transformation of the existing green area over the Stamford Canal into a 6,500 sqm public park with lush greenery, playscapes and event spaces,” Liam describes.

Residential development is very cyclical, says Liam. He still sees opportunities in good sites, but the market is also getting a bit elevated. “Land value for the last few years has been going upwards and the pursuit for land tenders is very aggressive. When we partner CLD (CapitaLand Development), there’s a complementary skill set that gives us the ability to tender for larger sites, integrated development and more complex sites that require a much more complex execution, and that gives us the ability to have a higher strike chance,” Liam points out.

UOL has partnered CLD at ParkTown Residences, which saw strong take-up and is 94% sold; Skye at Holland, another joint venture with CLD, was officially launched in October 2025 and is 99% sold. UpperHouse, developed by UOL and SingLand, is 77% sold. Revenue and profit booked from progressive payments will continue to support UOL’s earnings. “Due to earlier acquisitions, we have launched well,” Liam points out.

In January, UOL, CLD and CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust were awarded a site in Hougang Central, connected to Hougang MRT Station, an upcoming bus interchange and the Cross Island Line.

Sustainable dividends of 18 cents

During the results briefing on Feb 26, UOL group CFO Eric Ng says the 18 cents ordinary dividend it announced is sustainable. “Our residential Ebitda is around 25% of the total. Hospitality and commercial property provide recurring income,” he says. Hence, UOL’s recurring income and the visibility of its residential business are likely to keep dividends at 18 cents.

UOL announced a special dividend of five cents. “The special dividend is intended to reward our shareholders for a strong operating performance,” Ng says. He points out that UOL rewarded shareholders in FY2023 after selling ParkRoyal Kitchener.

Ng also laid to rest fears of UOL and Sing­Land’s ability to fund the Marina Square project. “SingLand has a very strong balance sheet to be able to fund that project,” Ng says, referring to SingLand’s almost non-existent gearing. Meanwhile, UOL has an equity base of $16.6 billion, which means that every $1.6 billion of debt translates into an additional 0.1 times the debt-to-equity ratio. Net debt to equity as at Dec 31, 2025 was 0.2 times. Should the Marina Square project cost $3.2 billion, the net debt-to-equity ratio would rise to 0.44 times.

Meanwhile, City & Country has reported that the Marina Square project will include 702 residential units, which can be sold to help offset cash outflows for the integrated project. Ng adds that the Marina Square project is likely be spread out for a few years. He emphasises that UOL is a developer, so it needs a sizeable equity base. As for future securitisation platforms, Ng doesn’t rule them out as future tools.

“If done well, I see more potential for CDL,” notes Vijay Natarajan. As some analysts see it, UOL trades at a narrower discount to NAV because its strategy and outlook are already reflected in its price. On the other hand, CDL can benefit from a turnaround, especially if it can divest its UK legacy assets, which have faced planning permission delays and changes in government policy. Such a divestment could lead to another significant special dividend.

For the Marina Square development, DBS Group Research says it is valued at 3.5 to 4.8 times the development, given it is currently valued at just $490 psf of gross floor area (GFA). But that is over a few years. In summary, investors should consider CDL for the near term, while UOL can be their core holding for the longer term.

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