(July 16): Netflix Inc has been one of the worst stocks in the market over the past 12 months as concerns about the video-streaming giant’s plans and prospects refuse to go away. Now, investors worry that its earnings report after the close will confirm those fears.
The shares have lost 45% since hitting an all-time high on June 30, 2025, putting them among the 20 worst performers in the S&P 500 Index over that time and wiping out US$260 billion in market value. They’ve slumped 32% since mid-April, when Netflix’s previous earnings report included a weak forecast and the news that chairman Reed Hastings, the company’s co-founder and public face, was stepping down. This was just a few months after Netflix withdrew from the bidding to buy Warner Bros Discovery Inc, which ultimately inked a deal with Paramount Skydance Corp.
Concerns about the company’s audience engagement and threats of competition have only been building since then. Last month, Meta Platforms Inc announced that it’s exploring new formats for its Instagram for TV platform, suggesting more competition in the streaming arena. Meanwhile, movie theatres have experienced something of a revival, with audiences flocking to unexpected hits like Backrooms and Obsessions. Perhaps not surprisingly, Netflix is being trounced by stocks like Cinemark Holdings Inc, Imax Corp and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc this year.
All of which explains why these results represent something of an existential moment for Netflix shareholders. And it doesn’t help that the stock has fallen after each of its last four earnings reports.
“Right now, the idea of disruption is in the ether,” said Conrad Van Tienhoven, portfolio manager at Riverpark Capital, which holds Netflix shares. “We’ve had third-party data showing lower engagement, we have Netflix no longer giving subscriber numbers, and we have it looking at M&A for the first time. All of that makes up a trail of breadcrumbs that has led to the stock being where it is now. I hope the company realises how important this call will be to change the view, especially since Reed Hastings is no longer around.”
Improved engagement is particularly crucial to investors because it indicates that more people are subscribing and watching Netflix programs. The company is struggling to get viewers to stick with its shows for more than a season, and it reportedly discussed adding live channels and bundling other subscription-based streaming services to gain better traction.
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“Trying to understand what they’re going to do to improve engagement moving forward is going be key,” said Hanna Howard, a portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, adding that a strong outlook would be better for lifting shares than solid quarterly results. “I think that some people are viewing their attempt at Warner Brothers as kind of a way to combat the engagement concerns and obviously that didn’t pan out.”
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There have been indications that Netflix may be interested in other acquisitions. Last month, it lost out to Fox in its pursuit of Roku, according to a report by Semafor. And it supposedly was among the companies interested in buying Lionsgate, according to the same report, although Netflix denied it was considering a bid.
The research firm M Science warned about weak user trends in June, with data suggesting the company was seeing its weakest quarterly global net additions since 2022. “Churn has picked up in the US and appears worse than what we saw during the 2025 price hike,” it wrote.
In terms of the results themselves, Netflix is expected to post a 14% increase in second-quarter revenue to roughly US$13 billion, and a 10% rise in earnings per share to 79 cents. Wall Street is overwhelmingly bullish on the company, with 51 of the 64 analysts tracked by Bloomberg who follow the stock rating it a buy. Its price target of US$112.51 implies a 53% gain over the next 12 months.
“I think the results will show that the business remains healthy, that advertising continues to grow, that consumers continue to absorb price hikes,” Riverpark Capital’s Van Tienhoven said. “It remains a must-own, must-pay-for service for hundreds of millions. The selloff has been overblown. It is still the greatest media asset in the world. No one is close in streaming. It is trading at a discount while still growing double-digits. It seems like a great time to buy.”
Indeed, the shares are relatively cheap. Netflix currently trades at 20 times earnings projected over the next 12 months, compared with its 10-year average of 51. The stock was priced above 30 times forward earnings as recently as April, and it’s now at a slight discount to the S&P 500 for the first time since 2022.
All of which makes Netflix shares a potential compelling opportunity for investors. That is, as long as the company’s earnings don’t confirm that its 12-month slide was justified.
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“Every time the stock’s been down, it always comes back,” said Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki, which owns Netflix shares, adding that he’s a fan of the company’s leadership and especially chief executive officer Ted Sarandos. “For an investor looking at Netflix, at 20 times earnings, it’s just a ridiculous gift.”
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Uploaded by Evelyn Chan
