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Fed's 25bps rate cut 'hawkish'; dot plot 'less relevant today', say analysts

Nicole Lim
Nicole Lim • 4 min read
Fed's 25bps rate cut 'hawkish'; dot plot 'less relevant today', say analysts
The market now expects a rate cut pause in January and just two cuts for the whole of next year, down from almost six cuts forecast in early September. Photo: Bloomberg
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Following the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s lowering of the benchmark interest rate for a third consecutive time on Wednesday, market watchers and analysts from various research houses say the cut was a “hawkish” one.  

The move reduces the central bank’s Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to between 4.25% and 4.5%. “The dot plot and economic projections were hawkish. This suggests the US Fed is acknowledging last-mile inflation risks and potential upside pressure from the policies of an incoming Trump administration,” says Nomura’s Global Markets Research analysts.

Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global, says that the actual cut of 25bps was the “least important component of the meeting” as it was already priced in by markets. He says that including the forward guidance components, the cut was a “hawkish cut”.  

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