Powell's Fed stays dovish but rates could rise faster than suggested

(Mar 22): The latest FOMC meeting appears to confirm that Chair Jay Powell’s Fed will remain dovish. Interest rates will rise slowly, while changes to the outlook will be incremental and reactive. Monetary policy is not set to turn “tight” until 2020, but we think rates will need to rise faster than the Fed suggests.

See: Fed lifts rates to 1.75% on improving economy; two more increases expected this year

The Fed put through the sixth 0.25% rate hike of this cycle, as expected, but made relatively small revisions to the “dot plot” or its economic forecasts. By the end of 2020 the Fed sees just over one extra interest rate hike compared to December, which looks like a cautious change considering the fiscal boost that is hitting the economy. In response to that stimulus, growth forecasts have been pushed higher, to 2.7% this year and 2.4% in 2019.

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