For Southeast Asian countries, this means a future of "unpredictable shocks". Despite the caprice of Trump 2.0, replacing US export markets, investment and technology inputs is challenging. Yet China is not just their fastest growing investor, leading trade partner and key source of intermediate goods, but also has "escalation dominance" over the US in this trade war. In other words, China is better placed to endure this conflict and has more cards in play to control its course.
In the ensuing Sino-US trade war, China, to use US President Donald Trump's lingo, has more cards to play than its economic rival.
Trump's doubling down on tariffs on China, while pausing escalation towards other countries, could well mark the US entering the last stages of decoupling "Chimerica" - the symbiotic relationship between the world's two biggest economies. But Trump's approach to date bodes poorly for a global economic restructuring in the US' favour.
