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Reading between China’s red lines

Stephen S Roach
Stephen S Roach  • 5 min read
Reading between China’s red lines
Multiple red lines send mixed signals. Is the country drawing them determined to assert its global power, or is it in the grip of a national paranoia? / Photo: Bloomberg
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Chinese President Xi Jinping sent an unmistakably tough message on Taiwan to US President Donald Trump during their recent summit in Beijing. Xi warned that if the issue was handled poorly, China and the US would “collide or even clash”, creating an “extremely dangerous situation”. He stressed that Taiwan holds the key to Sino-American relations.

This is a classic example of the bright red lines that Xi has grown fond of drawing in recent years. In 2022, on the sidelines of a G20 meeting in Bali, he warned then-US president Joe Biden of four red lines in US-China relations: Taiwan, democracy and human rights, China’s political system, and its right to development. Thus, in addition to stressing China’s claim over Taiwan, Xi asserted the country’s strict control of Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and Tibet, as well as the Communist Party of China’s political monopoly, while rejecting any US efforts to contain China’s rise.

While Taiwan is always mentioned first in China’s red-line hierarchy, the increased emphasis on it at the Beijing summit was clearly intended to sharpen the distinction between this warning and the others. But the ranking of red lines produces more questions than answers. If China successfully enforces the red line on Taiwan, would that allow the Chinese government to ease its vigilance on the others? If not, what’s the point of differentiating between them?

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