Singapore companies have spent millions on geopolitical dashboards, scenario planning exercises, early-warning AI tools and geopolitical consulting services. Yet none predicted or prevented losses from Covid-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or Middle Eastern conflicts. The failure was due not to a lack of information, but to poor design.
A growing body of evidence shows most are solving the wrong problem. Analysis of 88 major geopolitical crises since 1931 and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and BlackRock studies confirm that market outcomes are rarely shaped by geopolitics. Companies that outperform do not predict better — they prepare better.
