The inflation outlook poses an even bigger challenge. The past few years have shown that inflation can be heavily affected — at least on a headline basis — by uncertainty and unknown unknowns that make themselves known.
As we head into 2024, there are many known unknowns — especially on the geopolitical front — and presumably as many unknown unknowns lurking on the horizon.
Producing any forecast for the global economy is thus more difficult than usual. For their part, investment houses seem to be expecting a further slowdown this year, with many flummoxed by the fact that we have not had a major slump already.
