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The middle-power dilemma

Eswar Prasad
Eswar Prasad  • 5 min read
The middle-power dilemma
As competition between the world’s two superpowers becomes more destructive, the rest of the world is stuck in a negative feedback loop that runs through economics, domestic politics, and geopolitics. Photo: Unsplash
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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent speech at Davos received the third standing ovation in the World Economic Forum’s history, with the previous two going to Nelson Mandela and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. It struck a chord because it clearly articulated a realisation that is sinking in everywhere: the postwar rules-based order that ensured relative stability and facilitated the spread of prosperity is crumbling.

The US, which became the dominant power after the collapse of the Soviet Union, is no longer willing to provide constructive global leadership or support the institutions that it played a leading role in creating. At the same time, China is keen to assume the mantle of leadership that the US is relinquishing, but its weak rule of law and mercantilist model make it difficult to trust.

For example, China has sought to position itself as the main defender of free trade and the rules-based system, but it has used and abused those rules to its advantage, becoming an exporting powerhouse while restricting other countries’ access to its markets. As a result, the rest of the world is terrified of being swamped by Chinese exports, especially now that China’s growth is becoming even more imbalanced and heavily dependent on exports.

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