This is an important factor because voter turnout matters in US Presidential elections. History is also in Trump’s favour as the last assassination attempt of a US President took place in March 1981, and it boosted then-President Ronald Regan’s opinion poll rating by 22 points.
Trump was already ahead of Biden in opinion polls even before the latest weekend shooting incident in Pennsylvania. Nevertheless, the attempted assassination of Trump has boosted his chances of victory significantly, according to well-followed prediction market website, PredicIT, which is currently projecting a 67% chance of a victory for the former president compared to 60% before the shooting and 55% before the Trump-Biden debate on June 27.
Images of a defiant Trump with his fist raised and a bloody right ear are all over the social and mainstream media. His supporters see the images as a metaphor for the former president’s resilience. Sympathy votes could increase the odds of a Trump victory as more of his supporters may now feel the need to turnout at polling booths in November to vote for him.
