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Investors better off sleeping through US presidential debates, says UBS economist

Ng Qi Siang
Ng Qi Siang • 5 min read
Investors better off sleeping through US presidential debates, says UBS economist
Markets have remained calm following the debates in the absence of any policy surprises.
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It was all heat and no light at the first US Presidential debates between President Donald Trump and former Vice-President Joe Biden today, as the proceedings quickly descended into a farce. Trump’s regular interruptions of Biden’s speeches - which moderator Chris Wallace proved powerless to stop - meant that viewers often strained to discern any coherent line of argument in the melee as Biden struggled to get a word in edgewise through the President’s shouting.

“Overall, the debate was neutral and neither candidate came across significantly better than the other,” says Vasu Menon, Executive Director of Investment Strategy, OCBC Bank. He thought that while Biden was calm and addressed key issues raised by an aggressive Trump, he came across as less forceful in articulating his message. Issues important to investors such as the economy and the Covid-19 pandemic were not meaningfully addressed above the noise.

Not that the debates were going to prove particularly consequential anyway, with 90% of the electorate having already decided on their candidate and voting already under way in some states. Considering Biden’s lead in the polls, says Jeffrey Halley, Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific at OANDA, all he had to do to win was to turn up and avoid any controversial remarks.

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