Calling his previous estimate an “overly-optimistic assumption”, May says the number was based on expectations of a relaxation in some social distancing measures in early 2021 due to medical developments such as a vaccine for the coronavirus.
The weak global economic climate is slated to extend into the second quarter of 2021 as countries continue to impose social distancing measures to curb the spread of coronavirus infections.
This has prompted Ben May, Director of Oxford Economics’ Global Macro Research division to revise his forecast for 2021 global GDP growth downwards to 5.4%, from a previous 5.8% estimate.
