SINGAPORE (May 6): Goldman Sachs Group sees an end to the gloom for solar manufacturers as demand in China stabilises and free-falling panel prices bottom out.
China, the world’s biggest solar market, sent convulsions around the globe last year when it dialled back incentives and slowed development. That exacerbated a global panel glut and has sent prices tumbling 26% — forcing some manufacturers to sell below their costs.
Now Goldman sees installations in China stabilising in 2019 at around 42GW, analyst Brian Lee writes in a research note. Globally, the investment bank forecasts 15% growth.
“The global supply-demand backdrop looks to be improving,” Lee writes. So far this year, panel prices have declined just 2.3%, according to PVinsights data.
In the US, Goldman sees about 50% growth in the utility-scale sector this year over 2018, largely owing to state renewable energy mandates and solar’s increasing competitiveness against fossil fuel generators. Solar farm installations may reach a record 12GW next year in the US alone, Lee writes.
That is good news for manufacturers including First Solar, which is rolling out a new and more powerful panel design. The company’s shares have gained 45% this year.
Canadian Solar is also expected to benefit from stable prices and accelerated growth in the second half, Lee says in the report.
