Four years ago, nobody expected that Donald Trump would be elected US President. “Donald Trump’s chances of winning are approaching zero,” screamed the Washington Post as Democrat Hilary Clinton established a 2–3% national lead on average according to FiveThirtyEight’s metrics. The seeming failure of polls in 2016 was deeply shocking to say the least for Democrats, who thought they had the race in the bag.
Four years later, Democratic challenger Joe Biden has established a commanding lead over his Republican opponent, even as incumbents typically enjoy an advantage in US Presidential races. “Both Biden’s average support and margin over Trump are historically large — the largest of any contender since Bill Clinton in 1996,” says FiveThirtyEight elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley in June when that lead was still 9.6%. With the lead now around double digits mere days before the polls, a second Trump victory will take nothing short of a miracle.
With the wounds from 2016 still fresh, some traumatised Democrats, prefer to be cautious. “Some people say, ‘Oh look at the numbers’. I don’t believe these numbers,” said a cynical Debbie Dingell, a Democratic House Representative for Michigan at a Biden fundraiser.
But perhaps Dingell’s self-confessed “Debby downer” attitude is not just Liberal paranoia. Courtney Kennedy, director of survey research at the Pew Research Centre, points out that barriers to entry to polling have come down over time, with even “national polls” not necessarily offering methodological rigour.
“The real margin of error is often about double the one reported,” she remarks, pointing out that these margins rarely account for non-responses, mismeasurement and incomplete coverage of the polling sample. Polling can even alter voter behaviour. Voters may for instance choose not to vote if they believe their candidate is leading.
The numbers don’t lie
But Cailin Birch, global economist at EIU, believes that polls will be more reliable this year. “Some friends in the polling sector have said that if the polls are wrong this year, there is not going to be polling anymore,” she laughs, pointing out that Clinton’s 2% margin of the popular vote was within the margin of error of most polls, which saw her lead with two to three points. Trump’s victory was decided due to a few razor-thin wins in several swing states, allowing him to edge her in the electoral college, which actually decides who becomes president.
Moreover, Trump’s non-traditional political views in 2016 saw the rise of “shy Trump voters” unwilling to admit that they supported him, leading to the underreporting of his support among the electorate. But Trump’s views are now relatively mainstream due to his incumbency and he has also taken over the fund-raising arm of the Republican Party, making his supporters more willing to voice their support. Polls are thus unlikely to underestimate Trump’s following again.
And pollsters have been updating their polling methodology since 2016, with The Economist’s own forecasts now calculating electoral college victory, rather than raw poll numbers. Nate Silver, pollster and founder of FiveThirtyEight, says that polling now places greater emphasis on weighting responses by respondent’s education, which strongly affects voting preferences.
Financial leaders, at least, are willing to trust the polls. “I know there is a tendency [to overestimate Trump] because ... to some extent the polls were a bit wrong in 2016. But this time, there will be no surprise,” Nakamura of Lombard Odier assures The Edge Singapore, arguing that Biden’s lead is too great for any sudden comeback by Trump. Lombard Odier’s base case is that Democrats will win both the White House and Congress.
Advantage Democrats
According to Birch, while Trump has been able to call upon a solid 40% base of loyal supporters, he appears to have lost the median voter. Recording a consistent 40% approval rating throughout his term, his support has failed to break that ceiling even in the wake of shocks like the onset of Covid-19, end of the US fiscal stimulus and the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg. It has been remarkable how stable polling has been, says Birch, highlighting that variance in polling was just 4.6 points from peak to trough.
“It effectively means that very little outside of the electoral fundamentals is going to influence this race. To see another major upset or event in the next few weeks isn’t going to change anything,” Birch tells an EIU webinar, observing that the US has already had as much volatility as it can take. Worse, Trump’s coalition is shrinking — having beat Clinton among senior citizens by 7% in 2016, he now trails Biden by double-digits. Key swing states — Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — are leaning Democrat with margins greater than Trump’s in 2016.
It is also important to remember that Trump was never really a popular candidate to begin with. Although his supporters are loud and demonstrative, Trump actually lost the popular vote in 2016 to a historically unpopular candidate. Biden enjoys a broad coalition united against Trump, with at least nominal support from progressives on the Left like Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez to “Never Trump Republicans” like former Secretary of State Colin Powell on the Right — all eager to oust the populist President.
Eric Posner, a law professor at the University of Chicago, warns that Trump’s ability to harness the fear of his base will prove a powerful advantage at the polls. “Trump won the election in 2016 by converting his professional and temperamental unfitness for the presidency into a political virtue. Defiance of the establishment gave Trump credibility among Republican voters, who believed that mainstream politicians ignored their interests,” he says. Utterly devoted to Trump, the former reality television star’s loyal base may yet come through again.
Courtroom drama
Biden’s wide lead has seen some observers underweighting the possibility of a contested election. If Biden beats Trump conclusively, so the thinking goes, then Trump will have less latitude to contest the election results as promised should he lose. But Birch warns that Biden’s lead in the electoral college could be much thinner than his raw polling, which will allow Trump an avenue to contest the result.
This could be a potential source of political uncertainty, as the US may find itself without a clear winner for up to one to two months. David Alexander Meier and David Kohl of Julius Baer predict that the challenge could persist until Jan 20, 2021 at the latest. The Trump administration will remain in charge until its term officially ends on Jan 21, 2021.
The conservative majority on the US Supreme Court, which has been bolstered now that Trump’s pick Judge Amy Coney Barrett has been confirmed as liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg’s replacement by the Senate, will not necessarily see the court ruling in his favour. The ruling of the court depends not so much on the justice’s political inclinations as their philosophy of law. This has at times seen Trump’s Supreme Court appointees ruling against the President, with Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh ruling that Trump could not evade a subpoena over his tax returns in July.
“It all does come down to the question that is posed,” Birch remarks, noting that the court does not rule on election winners per se, but instead on legal technicalities related to the conduct of the polls. The contested 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, for instance, decided on whether the state of Florida had the authority to hold a recount over allegations of incompletely punched ballot cards colloquially known as “hanging chads”.
“Given the persistent uncertainty due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the absence of fiscal support due to the fierce political battle in a highly polarised country, asset valuations could come under severe pressure between Nov 3 and Jan 20, 2021, before recovering once the dispute is settled,” argue Kohl and Meier.
But Dyer of M&G tells The Edge Singapore that markets have begun to price in a contested election, mitigating a potential downturn. Thomas Costerg, senior US Economist at Pictet Wealth Management, also notes that low interest rates will support asset prices too. Dyer observes that a diversified portfolio with some overweight in equities could benefit from market upsides when volatility eases.
