“The tariff shock poses unprecedented challenges to China’s exports and will set forth major adjustment in the domestic economy as well,” UBS economists including Tao Wang wrote in a note Tuesday.
UBS added to a series of growth downgrades for China with the most pessimistic forecast among major banks, predicting the economy will expand just 3.4% this year as US tariffs choke exports.
The Swiss bank, which previously saw growth in 2025 at 4%, maintained its estimate for next year at 3%. Both forecasts are the lowest of all projections for the economy compiled by Bloomberg.
