Crude oil prices have climbed about 50% since the conflict began, and refined products and fertiliser inputs such as urea about 80%, after roughly 80% of vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. Early strains have surfaced in industrial inputs such as helium, sulphur and fertilisers, though broad-based market dislocations have been avoided.
The Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has kept its 2026 growth forecast for the region unchanged at 4%, even as it raises its inflation projection to 1.8% from 1.4%, citing more prolonged disruptions from the Middle East conflict.
In an interim update to its regional economic outlook released on June 2, AMRO says the region (the Asean economies together with China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea) remains resilient, but warns that signs of stress are surfacing as the conflict, which broke out in late February, enters its fourth month, longer than the two months earlier expected.
